Belarus Military - "It comes with considerable risks for the Belarusians. Look at the pounding that the Russian military has taken in Ukraine," Ali said. "Belarus is such a small country. It has such limited military resources. Losing a few hundred troops or a couple thousand would be devastating for them."
Lukashenko's response was to detain thousands of people and launch a brutal crack down on media freedom and human rights organizations in the country. Since then, he has relied even more heavily on Putin for support.
Belarus Military
The plane - a Beriev A-50 aircraft - has the NATO reporting name of Mainstay and is an airborne early warning aircraft with command and control capabilities and the ability to track up to 60 targets at a time.
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According to BYPOL, the attack took place on a Russian A-50 surveillance aircraft, which was located at the Machulishchi military airfield near Minsk. The A-50 is an early warning aircraft with command and control capabilities and the ability to track up to 60 targets at a time, according to Reuters.
Feb 27 (Reuters) - Belarusian anti-government activists said they had blown up a sophisticated Russian military surveillance aircraft in a drone attack at an airfield near the Belarusian capital Minsk, a claim that neither Russia nor Belarus confirmed.
The Kremlin declined to comment on Azarov's claim, saying that the alleged incident had occurred on the territory of Belarus which it said had denied the claim. There was no immediate response to requests for comment from the Belarusian or Russian defence ministries.
Ali said Belarus could also be ramping military exercises to project solidarity with Russia or make a show of force toward Ukraine, but he doubted that it would "fundamentally alter" the outcome of the war, pointing to Belarus' small size and limited resources. Still, he said, there wouldn't be much of a downside to Russia, which has reportedly suffered significant troop losses throughout the war.
Ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the Ukraine invasion on February 24, Belarus has emerged as one of its closest strategic allies as Putin faces rebuke from the West. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has publicly supported Putin, even allowing Russian troops to enter Ukraine from the Belarus-Ukraine border, providing closer access to the capital city of Kyiv.
"I think that, unless the Belarusian president has the same perspective of driving his country into a ditch and potentially not being able to back the car up—if we use that analogy—then I just don't see what advantage it has to Belarus," Ali said.
"I am proud of all Belarusians who continue to resist the Russian hybrid occupation of Belarus & fight for the freedom of Ukraine," Tsikhanouskaya, the opposition leader, wrote on Twitter, with a link to her adviser Viacorka's report.
"They were drones (that carried out the attack). The participants of the operation are Belarusians," Aliaksandr Azarov, leader of Belarusian anti-government organization BYPOL, was quoted as saying on Sunday on the organisation's Telegram messaging app and on the Poland-based Belsat news channel.
Lukashenko said earlier this month that he will not send soldiers to fight in Ukraine unless his country was attacked, with some officials suggesting he made the promise out of fear of domestic backlash if he became more involved in the war.
Russia, facing mounting losses, would likely take any support it can get, but Belarus could also face backlash from the international community for joining the war if its military is seen as aiding an aggressor or attacks civilian targets, Ali said. It could face diplomatic pressure or sanctions, which the West has used against Russia.
[1/4] Beriev A-50 early warning aircraft flies during a rehearsal for the Victory Day parade, which marks the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, near the Moscow International Business Centre, also known as "Moskva-City", in Moscow, Russia May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina
Belarus on Tuesday announced plans to inspect the combat readiness of its troops, the latest of several actions by the military in recent weeks, according to Reuters. It follows a counterterrorism exercise this month, a check-in on eligible service members and an army exercise in October.
While Ali doesn't "see the upside" for Belarus joining the war, as it could trigger operational and political consequences for the government, he said Belarus still could join the war if Putin "strong-armed" Lukashenko into doing so.
He said the drones had damaged the front and central parts of the A-50 plane, including the aircraft's radar antenna and avionics. The two people who carried out the attack were now safely outside Belarus, he said.
Taiwan's government believes China is set to renew a charm offensive targeting "opinion leaders" to win hearts and minds as the island gears up for a presidential election in less than a year, a security agency said in an internal report.
The head of Belarusian opposition group BYPOL took responsibility for the attack, with its leader, Aliksandr Azarov, saying on Telegram that it was accomplished using drones. "Those were drones. The participants of the operation are Belarusian," he wrote, according to Reuters.
"If we use the Armed Forces' personnel to get involved in this conflict, we will add nothing to it," he told reporters. "On the contrary, we will make things worse. It is not Belarus' role in this conflict."
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Ukraine warned Lukashenko against sending his troops into the conflict in October. The General Staff of the Armed forces wrote in a Facebook post: "If the army of Belarus supports the Russian aggression, we will respond. We will respond as harshly as we respond to all invaders on the territory of Ukraine."
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